004
WTPZ44 KNHC 050232
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PILAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
900 PM MDT SAT NOV 04 2023
PILAR HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN BANDING AND A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE
PASSES AROUND 0000 UTC REVEALED A LITTLE BETTER INNER CORE
STRUCTURE. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE A
UNANIMOUS T3.0 (45 KT), AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMMS RANGE
FROM 41 TO 53 KT. USING A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS ALONG THE PATH OF PILAR COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDEED CALLS FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING, AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOW SUIT. BY LATE SUNDAY, HOWEVER,
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO PUT AN
END TO ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS PREDICTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, AND
STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT TIME. THE SMALL
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO SUCCUMB TO THESE UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, AND PILAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2-3
DAYS, AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
PILAR IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD, BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED OF 12 KT. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
WITH A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF PILAR WEAKENS.
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ON HOW
VERTICALLY DEEP PILAR WILL REMAIN, WHICH AFFECTS HOW MUCH LATITUDE
THE STORM GAINS. SINCE THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO
COMMENCE BY LATE TOMORROW, THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID, WHICH IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE SIMPLE, MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 10.5N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 10.8N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 11.5N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 12.3N 115.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 13.2N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 14.2N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z 15.3N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN
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