105
WTPZ44 KNHC 051436
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PILAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
800 AM MST SUN NOV 05 2023
PILAR'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEGRADED A BIT THIS MORNING, AND A RECENT
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEEP
CONVECTION HAVE DECOUPLED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
STILL, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT, POSSIBLY GENEROUSLY,
BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS DIAGNOSED IN THE SHIPS
MODEL AS BEING LOW, GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS OCCURRING BENEATH THE OUTFLOW
LEVEL. THEREFORE, SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. AFTER 24 HOURS, DEEPER-LAYER SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE TO
THE EAST OF A TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE PILAR TO WEAKEN FASTER
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LOSE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 2 DAYS, AND
THEN DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4.
PILAR HAS SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 285/7 KT IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE
TROUGH, AND CONTINUE ON THAT HEADING UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN ABOUT 4
DAYS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION
AND LIES BETWEEN THE HCCA AND TVCE CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 10.8N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 11.3N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 12.1N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 13.1N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 14.6N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0000Z 16.0N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1200Z 17.3N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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