263
WTPZ44 KNHC 052033
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM PILAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
200 PM MST SUN NOV 05 2023
JUST AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, PILAR'S CENTER
POPPED OUT FROM BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST AND IS NOW LOCATED
AT LEAST 150 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF DEEP
CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW
DOWN TO 2.0/30 KT AND 2.5/35 KT, RESPECTIVELY, AND OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN TO BETWEEN 35-40 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA,
PILAR'S INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ALREADY TAKING ITS TOLL ON
PILAR, AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
HOSTILE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR
THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE, MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS,
LGEM, AND GFS SOLUTIONS, AND SHOWS PILAR BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY
36 HOURS. SINCE THE STORM REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS, THE FORECAST ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. BUT
IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR, PILAR COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL AS EARLY
AS TONIGHT. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 3
DAYS.
WITH THE CENTER BECOMING MORE APPARENT EARLIER THIS MORNING, IT'S
CLEAR THAT A WESTWARD MOTION HAS CONTINUED (NOW ESTIMATED TO BE
275/9 KT). THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING PILAR'S CURRENT
MOTION WELL AT ALL SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THEM SHOW AN IMMEDIATE
NORTHWESTWARD TURN, AND AS A RESULT, THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LEANS TOWARD THE
SHALLOW TRAJECTORY AND BETA MODEL (TABS), ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT
TERM. THIS NEW PREDICTION IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO THE ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION, AND ACCOUNTING FOR
PILAR'S RECENT MOTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 10.6N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 11.1N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 11.7N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 12.5N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 13.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0600Z 15.0N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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