647
WTNT32 KNHC 171433
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222023
1000 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2023
...DISTURBANCE'S CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
DECREASING...
...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT
ACROSS JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO, SANTIAGO DE CUBA, HOLGUIN, GRANMA,
AND LAS TUNAS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), THE DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND AN ADDITIONAL
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
JAMAICA LATER TODAY, SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BY EARLY SATURDAY, AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, BUT THE SYSTEM'S CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS
TO BE DECREASING.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO CAN BE FOUND
IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT2 AND
WMO HEADER WTNT42 KNHC, AND ON THE WEB AT
HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT2.SHTML
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN, ON JAMAICA TODAY, SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND HAITI
TONIGHT, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL: POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL TOTAL RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA, SOUTHEAST CUBA, AND
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS WELL AS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.
STORM SURGE: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA, THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS, AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA, HAITI, AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 100 PM EST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 PM EST.
FORECASTER BERG
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