791
WTPZ45 KNHC 242033
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
100 PM PST FRI NOV 24 2023
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH THE DRY AIRMASS TO ITS
NORTH. A LARGE ARC CLOUD STRETCHES AROUND THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE GENERALLY WARMED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED BURSTS OF CONVECTION
NEAR THE SUSPECTED LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. INTENSITY
ESTIMATES STILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 30 KT SINCE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS NOT IMPROVED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET TO AN UNCERTAIN 335/3 KT. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND HAS ONLY BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON
THE LATEST ESTIMATED INITIAL POSITION.
OCEANIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
HOSTILE IN THE COMING DAYS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD DECREASE WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THEREFORE, CHANCES REMAIN QUITE
LOW FOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 36 H. BY END
OF THE WEEKEND, THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
AND LIKELY OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 13.5N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 14.2N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 14.8N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 15.3N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 15.7N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0600Z 16.1N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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