303
WTPZ45 KNHC 250845
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RAMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
100 AM PST SAT NOV 25 2023
RAMON'S CENTER POPPED OUT FROM UNDER THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, ALTHOUGH NEW CONVECTION IS NOW
FORMING NEAR THE CENTER. AN ASCAT-C PASS FROM AROUND 06 UTC
VERIFIED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 35 KT AND ALSO SHOWED THAT THE
STORM HAS A TINY CIRCULATION, WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ONLY
EXTENDING 20 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE MORE VISIBLE CENTER AND SCATTEROMETER DATA AIDED IN ADJUSTING
THE BEST TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH, AND RAMON'S MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH, OR 350/4 KT. AN EVEN
SLOWER NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE RAMON IS CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING BETWEEN A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. AFTER 24 HOURS, A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER RAMON IS FORECAST TO
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE, STEERED BY A LOWER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
A BIT NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INITIAL CENTER REPOSITIONING AND BLENDS THE LATEST TVCE AND HCCA
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH THE WESTERLY SHEAR
AFFECTING RAMON WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GRADUALLY INCREASE,
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AND COULD GIVE THE
STORM AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.
THE 12-HOUR NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY AND
FOLLOWS THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID. HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE CONVERGENT JUST AFTER 24 HOURS, WITH
WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 50 KT. THOSE CONDITIONS SHOULD
LEAD TO QUICK WEAKENING, WITH RAMON EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BY 48 HOURS, IF NOT SOONER. GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW THE REMNANT LOW
DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 14.6N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 15.0N 122.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 15.2N 122.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 15.3N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 15.5N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1800Z 16.1N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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