597
WTPZ45 KNHC 252040
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM RAMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202023
100 PM PST SAT NOV 25 2023
RAMON HAS CHANGED LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
DEEP BURSTS OF CONVECTION THAT CONTINUE TO PARTIALLY OBSCURE THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WIND SPEED DATA
SHOWED PEAK WINDS BETWEEN 33-34 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT, KEEPING RAMON AT TROPICAL STORM STATUS
FOR NOW.
THE STORM IS DRIFTING IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT AN ESTIMATED
015/2 KT. RAMON IS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH, WHICH WILL CAUSE A SLOW
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTH MOTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. BY
SUNDAY, A WEAKER, MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 12 H, AND LIES
BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS AIDS TO THE SOUTH AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
THE NORTH AT 24 H AND BEYOND.
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT RAMON
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONVERGENT ALOFT THIS
EVENING. THE HOSTILE WINDS AND SURROUNDING DRY AIRMASS SHOULD CAUSE
RAMON TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS, IF NOT SOONER.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS THE STORM DISSIPATING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 15.3N 122.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 15.4N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 15.6N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 15.7N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1800Z 15.9N 124.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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