159
AXPZ20 KNHC 091540
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 9 2024
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
11N86W TO 09N100W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N117W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N117W TO 06N125W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN
96W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO
14N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA. A BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HIGH ACROSS THE REGIONAL
PACIFIC WATERS AND WEAKLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS GENERALLY ALLOWING FOR MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF CABO SAN LUCAS. S OF
CABO SAN LUCAS, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE
NOTED. SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE BAJA WATERS ARE 6 TO 8 FT, EXCEPT
7 TO 9 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL N OF PUNTA EUGENIA. INSIDE THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE, WEST TO NORTHWEST IN
DIRECTION. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC,
WHILE SEAS REMAIN 5 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS WELL N OF THE
LOCAL AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF CABO SAN LAZARO AND MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHWEST WINDS S OF CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE BAJA OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH FRI, WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT PERSISTING ACROSS
THE WATERS N THROUGH W OF PUNTA EUGENIA TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE S AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MON NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED AS THE TYPICAL
MONSOONAL CIRCULATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BECOMES SEASONALLY
ESTABLISHED. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THESE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF 93W, MOSTLY IMPACTING THE
CENTRAL AMERICAN OFFSHORE WATERS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS.
FREQUENT LIGHTING MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE ACTIVITY ONCE IT BEGINS
TO EXHIBIT A CLUSTERING PATTERN LATER TODAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AND SEAS MODERATE, 4 TO 5 FT IN S SWELL. BETWEEN THE
COAST OF ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WINDS ARE MAINLY
MODERATE FROM THE S TO SW IN DIRECTION ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7
FT IN S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF 09N THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL FEED MOISTURE
INTO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD OF 90W
BY FRI AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN A SOUTH SWELL. OTHERWISE,
NEW SOUTHERLY SWELL ENTERING THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 6
TO 7 FT S OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH SUN, AND BUILD BRIEFLY
TO NEAR 8 FT FRI NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OF 1034 MB IS CENTERED WELL N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. BROAD RIDGING EXTENDS FROM IT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN 105W AND 140W. THE GRADIENT
RELATED TO THIS RIDGE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS N OF 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SEAS
ACROSS THIS AREA N OF 20N ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN NORTHWEST SWELL,
EXCEPT 7 TO 9 FT NORTH OF 27N AND E OF ABOUT 130W. S OF 20N
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ AND W OF 120W, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALONG WITH SEAS OF
AND 6 TO 8 FT SEAS IN NORTHEAST SWELL PREVAIL. SOUTH OF THE ITCZ,
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE PRESENT AS SEEN
IN OVERNIGHT ASCAT DATA. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 6 TO 8 FT DUE
TO MIXED SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE TROPICAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME CONFINED TO BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND 20N THROUGH SUN, AS HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA
GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT WITH SMALL POCKETS OF SEAS
TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRADE WINDS ZONE THROUGH FRI,
THEN SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUN. NORTHWEST SWELL ACROSS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS PRODUCING SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FT WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATER TONIGHT, AND TO 6 FT OR LESS ON SAT.
AREINHART
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