552
WTPZ45 KNHC 222050
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
300 PM CST SUN SEP 22 2024
CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN
MONITORING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION IS CLOSED, WITH A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND
PEAK WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE, A
NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN.
THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY, BUT A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
CHALLENGING, AS THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL PATH OF THE SYSTEM. MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES
CAPTURED WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION OF A DEVELOPING CENTRAL
AMERICAN GYRE. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF GLOBAL MODELS (ECMWF AND UKMET)
INSTEAD SHOW A NORTHWARD DRIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE FIRST SCENARIO, AND GENERALLY LIES BETWEEN
THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS. HOWEVER, THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS,
AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITH FUTURE ISSUANCES.
THE MOIST, UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND VERY WARM WATERS SHOULD BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE IVCN AND
HCCA AIDS, BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE SOME MODELS
INDICATING THE SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. WHILE THIS IS
NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST, IT CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS, AND INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES. THE
PEAK INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG
THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER BEFORE REACHING THE COAST, WHICH IS
QUITE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE TRACK CHALLENGES DESCRIBED ABOVE.
BASED ON THIS FORECAST, THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA
MALDONADO TO SALINA CRUZ.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SLOW MOVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WILL BRING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING A RISK OF
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF
CHIAPAS AND OAXACA, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NEAR THE COAST.
2. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WHILE
MOVING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTLINE,
WHERE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN ON TUESDAY.
3. THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST IF IT REMAINS
OVER WATER. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES, AS A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTLINE LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 13.8N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 14.0N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 98.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.8N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 15.0N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 15.3N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 16.1N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 17.1N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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