686
WTPZ45 KNHC 230233
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
900 PM CST SUN SEP 22 2024
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION AND A SMALL AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS
OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY WELL
DEFINED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE A T-NUMBER OF
2.0, SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR NOW.
CENTER FIXES INDICATE LITTLE MOVEMENT SINCE EARLIER TODAY, SO THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NEARLY STATIONARY. AS NOTED EARLIER,
THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS QUITE PROBLEMATIC,
WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE MODELS. THE REGIONAL HURRICANE
MODELS ARE GENERALLY EAST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE, WITH THE ECMWF ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL TRACKS. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE
GFS TAKES THE CYCLONE INLAND IN A COUPLE OF DAYS BUT LATER
DEVELOPS ONE OR TWO NEW CENTERS OFFSHORE. SINCE THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM SEEMS TO BE THE CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE, THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A MAINLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
GYRE. THIS TRACK MOVES THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL, AND LIES BETWEEN
THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS PREDICTIONS.
DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OVER
VERY WARM WATERS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IN A MOIST LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL AIR MASS. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY, AND THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
LGEM GUIDANCE. ONE MAJOR SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS
HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST
UPDATES FOR THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE COAST NOW COVERED BY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WILL BRING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
AND POSSIBLY CATASTROPHIC, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS, OAXACA, AND SOUTHEAST
GUERRERO, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NEAR THE COAST.
2. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A
PORTION OF THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, WHERE TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN ON TUESDAY.
3. THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG IT REMAINS OVER WATER. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES, AS A HURRICANE
WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTLINE LATER TONIGHT
OR ON MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 13.9N 98.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 14.3N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.6N 97.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 15.2N 96.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 15.6N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 16.3N 94.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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