544
WTPZ35 KNHC 231154
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
600 AM CST MON SEP 23 2024
...JOHN QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
..HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 98.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM EAST OF BAHIAS DE HUATULCO TO SALINA CRUZ.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MALDONADO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF BAHIAS DE HUATULCO TO SALINA CRUZ
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 H. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST. JOHN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A SLOW
MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AND MOVE INLAND ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, AND THE CHANCES OF IT BECOMING A
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ARE INCREASING.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.35 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR JOHN CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDEP5.SHTML
RAINFALL: THROUGH THURSDAY, JOHN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND 15 INCHES ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS OF CHIAPAS. IN AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE OAXACA COAST
TO SOUTHEAST GUERRERO, BETWEEN 10 AND 20 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 30 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY
CATASTROPHIC, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS, OAXACA, AND SOUTHEAST GUERRERO,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NEAR THE COAST.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM JOHN, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP10.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FIRST REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TONIGHT, MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.
SURF: SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS MUCH OF THE WEEK.
PLEASE SEE LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.
FORECASTER HAGEN
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