038  
WTPZ35 KNHC 231447  
TCPEP5  
 
BULLETIN  
TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 4  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024  
900 AM CST MON SEP 23 2024  
 
...JOHN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST OF  
SOUTHERN MEXICO...  
...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND  
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN  
MEXICO...  
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION  
----------------------------------------------  
LOCATION...14.8N 98.5W  
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO  
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H  
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H  
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES  
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS  
--------------------  
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  
 
NONE.  
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:  
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...  
* PUNTA MALDONADO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...  
* EAST OF BAHIAS DE HUATULCO TO SALINA CRUZ  
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24  
TO 36 H. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED  
TO COMPLETION.  
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE  
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR  
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.  
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK  
----------------------  
AT 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS  
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST. JOHN IS  
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A SLOW MOTION TO THE  
NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST  
TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY  
TUESDAY, AND MOVE INLAND ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER  
GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND JOHN IS EXPECTED TO  
BECOME A HURRICANE BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING  
EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)  
FROM THE CENTER.  
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).  
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  
----------------------  
KEY MESSAGES FOR JOHN CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE  
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC  
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDEP5.SHTML  
 
RAINFALL: THROUGH THURSDAY, JOHN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 6 TO 12  
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND 15 INCHES ACROSS THE  
COASTAL AREAS OF CHIAPAS. IN AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE OAXACA COAST  
TO SOUTHEAST GUERRERO, BETWEEN 10 AND 20 INCHES OF RAIN WITH  
ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 30 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.  
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY  
CATASTROPHIC, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO THE  
MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS, OAXACA, AND SOUTHEAST GUERRERO,  
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NEAR THE COAST.  
 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH  
TROPICAL STORM JOHN, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM  
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT  
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF  
 
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE  
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE  
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE  
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.  
 
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN  
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO  
FIRST REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TONIGHT, MAKING OUTSIDE  
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE  
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.  
 
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST  
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON TUESDAY.  
 
SURF: SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE  
AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS MUCH OF  
THE WEEK. PLEASE SEE LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY  
-------------  
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 PM CST.  
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.  
 

 
FORECASTER HAGEN  
 
 
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