708
WTPZ35 KNHC 232048
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
300 PM CST MON SEP 23 2024
..JOHN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 98.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM WEST OF
PUNTA MALDONADO TO EAST OF ACAPULCO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ACAPULCO TO BAHIAS DE HUATULCO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF BAHIAS DE HUATULCO TO SALINA CRUZ
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JOHN IS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE, AND JOHN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES (20 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
(75 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB (28.74 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR JOHN CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ45 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDEP5.SHTML
RAINFALL: THROUGH THURSDAY, JOHN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND 15 INCHES ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS OF CHIAPAS. IN AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE OAXACA COAST
TO SOUTHEAST GUERRERO, BETWEEN 10 AND 20 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 30 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY
CATASTROPHIC, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS, OAXACA, AND SOUTHEAST GUERRERO,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NEAR THE COAST.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE JOHN, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST
REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON, MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
SURF: SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS MUCH OF
THE WEEK. PLEASE SEE LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 PM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.
FORECASTER HAGEN
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