210
WTPZ45 KNHC 240233
TCDEP5
HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
900 PM CST MON SEP 23 2024
JOHN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING WITH A SMALL TIGHT
INNER CORE, WHICH WAS WELL DEPICTED IN SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES AROUND
00Z. INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EYE WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR -80 C
WRAPPING AROUND THE CORE. SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH DATA-T VALUES OF T5.5 FROM
BOTH SAB AND TAFB, WITH FINAL-T VALUES CONSTRAINED DUE TO THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE DEPICTION AND USING
THE DATA-T VALUES, THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS INCREASED TO
105 KT. JOHN IS NOW A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.
THE HURRICANE COULD STILL STRENGTHEN SOME MORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. AFTER JOHN MOVES INLAND, RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE SMALL INNER CORE QUICKLY DETERIORATING.
THE RATE OF WEAKENING COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST AND THE 24 H FORECAST POINT IS HELD FOR CONTINUITY INLAND
AS IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE SOONER.
JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND 7 KT. THIS CURRENT MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE AS JOHN NEARS THE COAST, MAKING LANDFALL IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ON TUESDAY. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT MOVES INLAND
AND DISSIPATES.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. JOHN IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT REACHES THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND A
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
2. SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE JOHN WILL BRING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY
CATASTROPHIC, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS, OAXACA, AND SOUTHEAST GUERRERO,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NEAR THE COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 16.3N 98.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 17.0N 98.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 25/0000Z 17.5N 99.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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