070
WTPZ35 KNHC 260834
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
300 AM CST THU SEP 26 2024
..TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD
...CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 102.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA MALDONADO TO EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. JOHN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
JOHN IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OR JUST INLAND ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE LATER TODAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES ALONG
THE COAST OR INLAND ON FRIDAY AND WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION FRIDAY
NIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB (29.00 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: THROUGH FRIDAY, TROPICAL STORM JOHN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
AROUND 30 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO,
OAXACA AND MICHOACAN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP5.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER THIS MORNING,
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
SURF: SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE SEE LOCAL STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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