280
WTPZ41 KNHC 012055
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
300 PM CST TUE OCT 01 2024
THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BECOME WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WAS CONFIRMED WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THERE
HAS BEEN ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TODAY TO CONSIDER THIS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, AS SUGGESTED BY THE DATA-T ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB, AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH
THE MAX BELIEVABLE SCATTEROMETER VALUES.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 360/4 KT. THE DEPRESSION HAS
BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND
THIS GENERAL TRACK IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH LANDFALL WITH LITTLE
CHANGE SEEN IN THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER,
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE, OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN
THE INITIAL DEPTH OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND INVEST 97E. THE
ECMWF MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF THE INITIAL
VORTEX, AND THE TRACK FORECAST HEAVILY LEANS ON THAT MODEL
SOLUTION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS RECENT SUCCESSES WITH CYCLONES IN
THAT AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE,
AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS LARGER THAN TYPICAL BASED ON THAT
UNCERTAINTY.
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
DEPRESSION THROUGH LANDFALL, THOUGH VERY WARM SSTS AND A MOIST
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME STRENGTHENING. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH LANDFALL,
AND THE FIRST FORECAST SHOWS A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM, ABOVE MOST
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT, EXTREME RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING SEEM TO BE THE BIGGEST THREATS FROM THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, WHERE TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY.
2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA THIS WEEK. FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN, ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN GUATEMALA INTO PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN
STATES OF CHIAPAS, OAXACA, VERACRUZ, AND TABASCO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 15.1N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.5N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 15.9N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 16.5N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 03/1800Z 17.1N 94.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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