927
WTPZ41 KNHC 020234
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
900 PM CST TUE OCT 01 2024
THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SEPARATING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, WHICH IS
NOW EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT, NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES.
THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO THE COAST, CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT.
THE MODELS DON'T HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM, LIKELY BECAUSE
IT IS WEAK AND RELATIVELY SMALL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
CONTINUES TO LEAN HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION, TAKING THE SYSTEM
INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE DEPRESSION REACHES
THE COAST, BUT GIVEN ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE, SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT
MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA.
2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA THIS WEEK. FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN, ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN GUATEMALA INTO PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN
STATES OF CHIAPAS, OAXACA, VERACRUZ, AND TABASCO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 15.6N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 15.9N 94.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 16.5N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/1200Z 17.0N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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