416
WTPZ41 KNHC 020845
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
300 AM CST WED OCT 02 2024
DATA FROM BOTH ASCAT-B AND ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETERS SHOW THAT THE
CENTER OF THE SMALL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED SOMEWHAT WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE EARLIER TRACK. THERE WERE A COUPLE OF
SCATTEROMETER VECTORS SHOWING MINIMAL TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
BUT THESE APPEAR TO BE RAIN-INFLATED. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES, AND THE UNIMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM.
WITH THE RE-POSITIONING OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER, THE MOTION IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT MY BEST GUESS IS AROUND 290/5 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS ALSO QUITE UNCERTAIN, BUT NEEDS TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION, THE TRAJECTORY MODEL
FORECASTS, AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH ARE FARTHER SOUTH.
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST, ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT ITS
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER
END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. SINCE THE
SYSTEM IS NOW FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER INDICATED, THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO.
2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA THIS WEEK. FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN, ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN GUATEMALA INTO PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN
STATES OF CHIAPAS, OAXACA, VERACRUZ, AND TABASCO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 15.4N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 15.5N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.6N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 15.7N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 16.1N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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