157
WTPZ41 KNHC 021436
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
900 AM CST WED OCT 02 2024
FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A GMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS DURING THE
NIGHT SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS AGAIN
A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. WHILE THE SYSTEM
IS PART OF A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION, THE CONVECTION IS GENERALLY
POORLY ORGANIZED, AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE VARIOUS
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. BASED ON
THIS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL
ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ABSORBING OR
MERGING WITH THE VORTICITY OF THE EP97 DISTURBANCE, AND THIS HAS
RESULTED IN THE SYSTEM CENTER MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
PAST 6-12 H. THE MODELS HAVE DIVERSE SOLUTIONS FOR THE SUBSEQUENT
TRACK, WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN MEXICO, WHILE THE UKMET FORECASTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION OFFSHORE PARALLEL TO THE COAST AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING THE
SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE THE GFS AND UKMET FORECAST AND SHOWS THE
CENTER MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN 36-48 H IN THE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA. THIS FORECAST HAS SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
DIRECTION AND SPEED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS, IT IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH
AT LEAST 48 H. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION, AND THE
FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KT REMAINS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO.
2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA THIS WEEK. FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN, ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN GUATEMALA INTO PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN
STATES OF CHIAPAS, OAXACA, VERACRUZ, TABASCO AND COASTAL GUERRERO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 14.9N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.8N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 14.9N 96.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 15.3N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 16.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0000Z 16.4N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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