603
WTPZ41 KNHC 022045
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
300 PM CST WED OCT 02 2024
THE LASTEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION AS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR PATCHES OF
STRONG, BUT SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED, CONVECTION. THE REMNANT
VORTICITY OF THE 97E DISTURBANCE, ALSO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS, WAS
SEEN EARLIER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER. A RECENT
ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWS A SMALL WIND CORE MATCHING THE TIGHT CLOUD
SWIRL WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT,
AND BASED MAINLY ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.
THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE EP97
DISTURBANCE, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOMEWHAT DIVERSE
SOLUTIONS FOR THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS NOW
JOINED THE GFS AND CANADIAN IN FORECASTING A NORTHWARD MOTION.
HOWEVER, THE UKMET STILL FORECASTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST. AN ADDITIONAL COMPLICATION
IS THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CENTER COULD MOVE
EASTWARD BEFORE BEGINNING THE NORTHWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK AGAIN HAS SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO
FOLLOW THE NORTHWARD MOTION SCENARIO, BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 36-48 H. HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT CURRENTLY
SHOW ANY EASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE NORTHWARD MOTION, AND MORE
CHANGES MAY BE NECESSARY IN LATER ADVISORIES IF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
WARRANTS.
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO EITHER THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR
THE INTENSITY FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE CYCLONE
TRACKS, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH AT LEAST 48 H. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
INTENSIFICATION, AND THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KT REMAINS
AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN
GUATEMALA.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO.
2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA THIS WEEK. FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN, ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN GUATEMALA INTO PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN
STATES OF CHIAPAS, OAXACA, VERACRUZ, TABASCO AND COASTAL GUERRERO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 14.1N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.0N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 14.5N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 15.0N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 16.0N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 16.7N 98.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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