500
WTPZ41 KNHC 030239
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
900 PM CST WED OCT 02 2024
THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS,
AND IT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
OFFSHORE OF MANZANILLO NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THE SYSTEM ITSELF CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION,
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH 2.0
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD, BUT THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT AN ABRUPT TURN TO THE NORTH SHOULD OCCUR ON
THURSDAY, WITH THAT MOTION BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE EAST TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST MODELS, BUT THIS PREDICTION STILL LIES TO THE WEST OF MOST OF
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST, BUT
SINCE THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND EMBEDDED IN A LARGER
TROUGH, SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA THIS WEEK. FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN, ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN GUATEMALA INTO PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN
STATES OF CHIAPAS, OAXACA, VERACRUZ, TABASCO AND COASTAL GUERRERO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 14.2N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 14.4N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 14.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 15.8N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 16.8N 96.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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