297
WTPZ41 KNHC 031435
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
900 AM CST THU OCT 03 2024
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE, BUT POORLY ORGANIZED,
AREA OF CONVECTION, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOST LIKELY IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN 30 KT, AND THIS IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE CENTER POSITION HAS A LARGER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY,
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO A BIT UNCERTAIN AT 045/5. THE TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 H, AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS IN
BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 12-24 HOURS AND INLAND
OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AFTER THAT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAY OCCUR IF DATA THAT BETTER SHOWS
THE CENTER POSITION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING
BEFORE LANDFALL, ANY INTENSIFICATION AT ALL WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM
TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES
TO SHOW THIS OCCURRING. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY
WEAKEN, WITH THE REMNANTS EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT IS FORMING OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM LASTING THROUGH
36 H, IT COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS, THE PRIMARY THREAT
REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEK. FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN, ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS, OAXACA, VERACRUZ,
TABASCO AND COASTAL GUERRERO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 15.2N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 15.9N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 17.1N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0000Z 18.2N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND
48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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