985
WTNT45 KNHC 182037
TCDAT5
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 18 2024
THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY, WITH PERSISTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AROUND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. BUOYS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED SURFACE WIND MEASUREMENTS
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER, IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST
OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
THEREFORE, THE DISTURBANCE IS BEING DESIGNATED AS POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN, WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT, AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE CENTER LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE BROAD SIZE OF THE
CIRCULATION, AND THE INITIAL ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT MOTION IS
300/6 KT. STEERED BY MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD TONIGHT AND REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER, IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS.
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION, WITH
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE HAS LESS THAN ONE DAY BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL, AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL REACH LOW-END
TROPICAL STORM STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND THEN WEAKEN BEFORE
DISSIPATING ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING, AND
HIGH SURF TO PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN AS IT
TREKS WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO, NORTHERN GUATEMALA, AND
NORTHERN BELIZE.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 17.5N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/0600Z 17.5N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 17.3N 88.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 20/0600Z 17.2N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI
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