253
WTNT45 KNHC 190239
TCDAT5
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024
1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 18 2024
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DISTURBANCE HAS IMPROVED THIS
EVENING. CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED CLOSER TO
THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION, ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR FROM RECENT
PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY WHETHER A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER
EXISTS YET. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER, WHERE NOAA BUOY 42056 HAS REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30 KT AND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. BASED
ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND AVAILABLE SATELLITE DATA, THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN A 30-KT POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY. DATA
FROM AN ASCAT-C OVERPASS WILL ARRIVE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME CLARITY ABOUT THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM AND WHETHER IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.
THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT TO THE
SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
WESTWARD HEADING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE COAST OF
BELIZE BETWEEN 12-24 H FROM NOW. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
DESPITE LIMITED TIME REMAINING OVER WATER, WARM SSTS AND RELATIVELY
LOW SHEAR IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT MOVES
ASHORE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO TULUM, MEXICO. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, AND IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN IS EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS
FROM HEAVY RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HIGH SURF TO PORTIONS OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO, NORTHERN GUATEMALA, AND NORTHERN BELIZE.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 17.6N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/1200Z 17.5N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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