875
WTNT45 KNHC 191457
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152024
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 19 2024
NADINE IS VERY CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL IN BELIZE, NEAR BELIZE CITY.
THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY'S BARRIER ISLANDS
OF TURNEFFE ATOLL AND LANDFALL ON THE MAINLAND WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THE SPRAWLING TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY, AND A COMBINATION OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT INCREASING THE MAXIMUM WINDS
TO 45 KT. FURTHERMORE, RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF
NADINE HAS IMPROVED AND THERE ARE CURVED BANDS SURROUNDING THE
CENTER. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM, AND THEY WILL LIKELY REACH THE CENTER
SOON. A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE WILL BE PROVIDED WHEN THE STORM
MAKES LANDFALL.
THE STORM IS MOVING DUE WESTWARD AT 7 KT, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING IN THAT DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE NADINE ACROSS BELIZE, NORTHERN
GUATEMALA, AND SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
NADINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER THE CORE MOVES INLAND, AND IT
WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY. THE
REMNANTS HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF REFORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
BASIN DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK
OF NADINE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO, NORTHERN GUATEMALA, AND NORTHERN
BELIZE.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 17.3N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 17.3N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/1200Z 16.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/TORRES-VAZQUEZ
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