074
WTNT41 KNHC 191755
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OSCAR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2024
THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST
INTENSITY FOR OSCAR AND CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS CURRENTLY FLYING THROUGH THE
SYSTEM, AND IN THEIR SECOND SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST LEG FOUND 700 MB
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT, AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 989
MB. THE PLANE ALSO REPORTED A VERY SMALL 3 N MI WIDE EYE. A
DROPSONDE RECENTLY LAUNCHED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT ALSO HAD A 150
M BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN WIND OF 80 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA SUPPORTS
UPGRADING OSCAR TO A HURRICANE THIS ADVISORY WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 70 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY,
AND IS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.
DUE TO THIS UNEXPECTED HIGHER INTENSITY, THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SAME AREA CURRENTLY UNDER A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. OSCAR IS NOW EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, AND EASTERN
CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
2. OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ON THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
3. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO EASTERN CUBA ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1800Z 21.4N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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