863
WTNT31 KNHC 192041
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2024
..TINY OSCAR A LITTLE STRONGER
...TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD BRACE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 71.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO, HOLGUIN, AND LAS TUNAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO, HOLGUIN, AND LAS TUNAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVENCE OF CAMAGUEY
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST. OSCAR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED BY
MONDAY.
DROPSONDE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
OSCAR IS A VERY SMALL HURRICANE, WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ONLY
EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 5 MILES (10 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON EARLIER DROPSONDE
DATA IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR OSCAR CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT1.SHTML
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY, MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DANGEROUS.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA OF CUBA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH
THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL: THROUGH TUESDAY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CUBA.
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OSCAR,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT1.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, WHERE
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET. NEAR THE
COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
CUBA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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