660
WTNT41 KNHC 200254
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2024
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER OF OSCAR PASSED VERY NEAR GRAND
TURK ISLAND EARLIER THIS EVENING. PASSIVE MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE
TINY HURRICANE HAS A COMPACT INNER CORE WITH A SMALL CURVED BAND
THAT WRAPS AROUND MUCH OF ITS CIRCULATION. IN THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS SYMMETRIC, WITH A
SHARP EDGE TO THE CLOUD PATTERN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. THE
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN TOO LOW RELATIVE
TO WHAT THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THIS AFTERNOON, AND WITHOUT ANY NEW
OBSERVATIONS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KT. THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE OSCAR ON SUNDAY.
OSCAR CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT, BUT IT IS FORECAST
TO TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE
MOVING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF OSCAR
VERY NEAR OR OVER GREAT INAGUA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY
SUNDAY, THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE, WITH MORE MODELS INDICATING OSCAR COULD MAKE LANDFALL AND
MOVE INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA IN 24-36 H. THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS AND LIES CLOSEST TO THE SIMPLE
CONSENSUS TVCN AND GFEX AIDS. THEREAFTER, THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
MORE UNCERTAIN, AS THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF LAND INTERACTION WILL
DICTATE THE DEPTH OF THE VORTEX AND HOW IT IS STEERED. FOR NOW, THE
LONGER-RANGE FORECAST STILL FOLLOWS THE ECMWF, WHICH SHOWS OSCAR
TURNING NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK
AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR OSCAR REMAINS CHALLENGING, SINCE ITS
COMPACT SIZE MAKES IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO MORE RAPID INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS. WHILE SOME NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE HURRICANE COULD BE STARTING TO
FEEL THE EFFECTS OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH THE GLOBAL MODELS
INSIST WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 H. THE NHC FORECAST STILL
SHOWS OSCAR REACHING THE COAST OF CUBA AS A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN COAST. AFTERWARDS, LAND INTERACTION
AND STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING, WHICH COULD OCCUR EVEN
FASTER THAN FORECAST IF THE CENTER OF THE SMALL CYCLONE REMAINS
INLAND AS LONG AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, AND A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.
2. OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ON PORTIONS
OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT
AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF CUBA LATER ON SUNDAY.
3. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SIERRA MAESTRA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 21.3N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 21.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 20.6N 74.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 21/1200Z 20.6N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/0000Z 21.4N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 22/1200Z 22.2N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 23.8N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 27.0N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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