649
WTNT31 KNHC 200844
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2024
..OSCAR MAKES LANDFALL ON GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
...EXPECTED TO REACH GUANTANAMO OR HOLGUIN CUBA AS A HURRICANE THIS
AFTERNOON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 73.1W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO TO
PUNTA MAISI
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTH COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OSCAR. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA
LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. OSCAR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF OSCAR
WILL MOVE ACROSS GREAT INAGUA THIS MORNING, MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OSCAR WILL THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OSCAR IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA AS A HURRICANE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL, BUT OSCAR COULD STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM
WHEN IT MOVES NORTH OF CUBA LATE MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 5 MILES (10 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
(75 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB (29.18 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR OSCAR CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT1.SHTML
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, PARTICULARLY GREAT INAGUA
ISLAND, THROUGH THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA IN CUBA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA AND
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA OF CUBA THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL: THROUGH TUESDAY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CUBA.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE OSCAR, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT1.SHTML?RAINQPF .
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, WHERE WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN
2 AND 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. WATER LEVELS OF 1 TO 3 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF CUBA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BERG
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