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WTNT41 KNHC 200844
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2024
ANIMATION OF 1-MINUTE GOES INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES THAT
OSCAR'S CENTER HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF GREAT
INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SMALL CONVECTIVE BURSTS
HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN NOTED CLOSE TO THE CENTER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A VERY
TIGHT INNER CORE. OVERALL, THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT QUITE
AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, AND WITH THE
SMALL CORE NOW OVER GREAT INAGUA, THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS LOWERED
SLIGHTLY TO 70 KT--ALBEIT WITH A VERY LARGE ERROR BAR. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE OSCAR
IN A FEW HOURS.
OSCAR IS MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST (260 DEGREES), STILL AT ABOUT 10
KT. DUE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WEST, OSCAR
IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL
BRING THE CENTER TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN CUBA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 24-48
HOURS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE OSCAR TO TURN WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD
WHILE INLAND OVER CUBA ON MONDAY. OSCAR IS THEN FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE HCCA
CONSENSUS AID FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST, AND THEN MORE
CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF HCCA WITH TVCA AFTER THAT TIME. THIS
FORECAST IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION.
OSCAR'S SMALL SIZE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO
INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS, BUT THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHEASTERN CUBA AS A HURRICANE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SMALL
SIZE WILL ALSO MAKE THE CORE VULNERABLE TO BEING HEAVILY DISRUPTED
BY THE TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA, WHICH RISES SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE SEA LEVEL. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL FIELDS
IN PARTICULAR SHOW OSCAR'S CIRCULATION BECOMING LESS COMPACT AND
LESS WELL DEFINED IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. OSCAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
OVER CUBA, BUT IT COULD STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT EMERGES
BACK OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN 2-3
DAYS. ALTERNATIVELY, IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE THE OSCAR COULD
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE ENTIRELY WHILE OVER
EASTERN CUBA. IF OSCAR DOES SURVIVE CUBA, IT IS LIKELY TO BE
ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS
DISSIPATION BY DAY 4.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA.
2. OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ON PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY GREAT INAGUA
ISLAND, AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
3. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SIERRA MAESTRA, THROUGH TUESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 21.1N 73.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 20.6N 74.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 20.4N 75.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1800Z 20.8N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/0600Z 21.7N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 22/1800Z 22.7N 75.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 23.8N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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