243
WTNT31 KNHC 201154
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OSCAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2024
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FINDS OSCAR JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST
OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO REACH GUANTANAMO OR HOLGUIN CUBA AS A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 73.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO TO
PUNTA MAISI
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OSCAR. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA
LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST. OSCAR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A CONTINUED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF OSCAR
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM GREAT INAGUA LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OSCAR WILL THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AS RECENTLY REPORTED BY AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE DATA REMAINS NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA AS
A HURRICANE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER
LANDFALL, BUT OSCAR COULD STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT MOVES
NORTH OF CUBA LATE MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON
TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 5 MILES (10 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
(75 KM).
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA IS
986 MB (29.12 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR OSCAR CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT1.SHTML
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, PARTICULARLY GREAT INAGUA
ISLAND, THROUGH THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA IN CUBA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA AND
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA OF CUBA THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH TUESDAY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN CUBA.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE OSCAR, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT1.SHTML?RAINQPF .
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, WHERE WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN
2 AND 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. WATER LEVELS OF 1 TO 3 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF CUBA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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