098
WTNT31 KNHC 201455
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2024
..OSCAR STEADY IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NORTH
COASTLINE OF GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 73.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO TO
PUNTA MAISI
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OSCAR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST. OSCAR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A CONTINUED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF OSCAR
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OSCAR WILL THEN ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA AS
A HURRICANE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER
LANDFALL, BUT OSCAR COULD STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT MOVES
NORTH OF CUBA LATE MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON
TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES (20 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
(75 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AIRCRAFT
DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS IS 986 MB (29.12 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR OSCAR CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT1.SHTML
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, PARTICULARLY GREAT INAGUA
ISLAND, THROUGH THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA IN CUBA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA AND
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA OF CUBA THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES. ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS, AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE OSCAR, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT1.SHTML?RAINQPF .
STORM SURGE: A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, WHERE WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN
2 AND 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS. WATER LEVELS OF 1 TO 3 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF CUBA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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