767
WTNT41 KNHC 201459
TCDAT1
HURRICANE OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 20 2024
OSCAR REMAINS A COMPACT HURRICANE AS IT NEARS ITS NEXT LANDFALL IN
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE HAS BEEN PERFORMING ANOTHER RESOURCES PERMITTING
MISSION, FINDING THAT OSCAR REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE, THOUGH THE
LAST SEVERAL FIXES DO INDICATE THE EYE IS A BIT LARGER THAN
OBSERVED YESTERDAY, WITH A 15-20 MILE WIDE EYE. THIS EYE FEATURE IS
ALSO BEING OCCASIONALLY OBSERVED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUANTANAMO
BAY. ON SATELLITE, OSCAR STILL REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A SMALL
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS BELOW -80 C. IN
FACT, THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON
SATELLITE ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. FROM
THE AIRCRAFT IN-SITU DATA, A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT LEVEL, SFMR, AND
DROPSONDE DATA STILL SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KT THIS
ADVISORY.
OSCAR HAS MADE ITS TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, WITH THE CURRENT
ESTIMATED MOTION FROM RECON FIXES AT 250/7 KT. THE NARROW MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT WAS ORIGINALLY NORTH OF OSCAR HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD WHILE
A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS FARTHER EAST FROM A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND
THAT HAS RESULTED IN THE STEERING OVER THE HURRICANE SHIFTING MORE
EQUATORWARD, ALLOWING THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER, THE
TROUGH'S WEAKNESS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW AND ALSO MIGRATE WESTWARD,
AND OSCAR STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO SLOW TO A CRAWL AFTER IT MOVES
INLAND OVER CUBA. ULTIMATELY OSCAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO REEMERGE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IN 36 H AND MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT BECOMES CAPTURED BY THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND TVCA CONSENSUS AIDS, AND IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR TRACK FORECAST.
OSCAR APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN TODAY, AND NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN CUBA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AS A HURRICANE. THERE IS HIGH TERRAIN IN EASTERN CUBA
THAT IS LIKELY TO SEVERELY DISRUPT THE SMALL INNER-CORE OF OSCAR
AFTER IT MOVES INLAND. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY
THE GFS) SHOWS THAT OSCAR COULD WEAKEN MORE OVER THAN SHOWN HERE.
ASSUMING OSCAR SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE OVER CUBA, THE NHC FORECAST
SHOWS IT EMERGING BACK OFFSHORE AS A TROPICAL STORM IN 36-48 H.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BY THAT TIME, WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AND VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. ULTIMATELY OSCAR WILL FINALLY BE
ABSORBED BY A LARGER DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AFTER 72 H, SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA.
2. OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ON PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY GREAT INAGUA
ISLAND, AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
3. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SIERRA MAESTRA, THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/1500Z 20.7N 73.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 20.4N 74.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/1200Z 20.5N 75.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/0000Z 21.1N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 22/1200Z 22.1N 75.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 24.0N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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