111
WTNT31 KNHC 201750
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OSCAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2024
...OSCAR APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL SOON DETERIORATE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 74.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING
THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO TO
PUNTA MAISI
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* SOUTH COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OSCAR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS TRACKED BY
RADAR IN GUANTANAMO BAY NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 74.1
WEST. OSCAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH
(11 KM/H). A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOW FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CENTER OF OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE SYSTEM IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OSCAR
IS THEN FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA AS A HURRICANE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL, BUT OSCAR COULD STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM
WHEN IT MOVES NORTH OF CUBA LATE MONDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES (20 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45
MILES (75 KM).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB (29.12 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR OSCAR CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT1.SHTML
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
CUBA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN THE
WARNING AREA OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA OF CUBA THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES. ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS, AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE OSCAR, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT1.SHTML?RAINQPF .
STORM SURGE: WATER LEVELS OF 1 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF CUBA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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