129
WTNT31 KNHC 202044
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2024
..OSCAR CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN CUBA
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER EASTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 74.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND GUANTANAMO TO
PUNTA MAISI
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* SOUTH COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OSCAR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST. OSCAR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A CONTINUED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF OSCAR
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA SHORTLY. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OSCAR IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING A
BIT FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. AFTER OSCAR MAKES LANDFALL, SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED, BUT OSCAR COULD STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT MOVES
NORTH OF CUBA LATE MONDAY AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ON TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES (20 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
(75 KM). RECENTLY, THERE WAS A WIND GUST OF 63 MPH (101 KM/H) FROM
A WEATHER STATION IN PUNTA MAISI ON THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB (29.12 INCHES). A
WEATHER STATION IN PUNTA MAISI ON THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR OSCAR CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT1.SHTML
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
CUBA BEGINNING SHORTLY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN THE
WARNING AREA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY
IN THE WARNING AREA IN CUBA, AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA OF
CUBA THIS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES. ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS, AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE OSCAR, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT1.SHTML?RAINQPF .
STORM SURGE: WATER LEVELS OF 1 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF CUBA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PAPIN
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