359
WTNT31 KNHC 210551
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
200 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
...SLOW-MOVING OSCAR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 74.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS, HOLGUIN, AND
GUANTANAMO TO PUNTA MAISI
* SOUTH COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OSCAR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE
74.9 WEST. OSCAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (8
KM/H). A TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED
BY A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN EMERGE OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS OSCAR
INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA, BUT OSCAR
COULD STILL BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT MOVES NORTH OF CUBA LATE
TODAY AND THEN MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON
TUESDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.41 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR OSCAR CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT1.SHTML
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA AND
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA OF CUBA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES. ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS, AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OSCAR,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT1.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: WATER LEVELS OF 1 TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF CUBA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BROWN
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