102
WTNT41 KNHC 210837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
500 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
THE CENTER OF OSCAR HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUANTANAMO BAY HAS SHOWN
A CONTINUED DEGRADATION OF OSCAR'S INNER CORE, BANDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
A COUPLE OF ASCAT PASSES FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOWED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WERE OCCURRING ALONG BOTH THE SOUTHERN
AND NORTHERN COASTS OF EASTERN CUBA. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN INNER
CORE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED HAS BEEN LOWERED PERHAPS CONSERVATIVELY TO 45 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GUANTANAMO BAY INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THAT LOCATION. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/2 KT. THE STORM
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SOME
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER MAY
RE-FORM NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER TODAY, RATHER THAN
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUOUSLY TRACKING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF THE ISLAND. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK OVER
EASTERN CUBA, OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
CUBA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. IN 60-72
HOURS, GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL
BECOME ELONGATED AND THAT IT WILL BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER DEVELOPING
NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY DAY 3. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS AGAIN
FASTER THIS CYCLE, AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE OSCAR MOVES OVER EASTERN
CUBA TODAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS OSCAR A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AFTER IT EMERGES OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA, BUT
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH OSCAR WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THROUGH MIDWEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SIERRA
MAESTRA. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/0900Z 20.2N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 21/1800Z 20.6N 75.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/0600Z 21.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 22/1800Z 22.9N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 24.5N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA
FORECASTER BROWN
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