097
WTNT31 KNHC 211444
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
...OSCAR STILL CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 75.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS, HOLGUIN, AND
GUANTANAMO TO PUNTA MAISI
* SOUTH COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OSCAR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. OSCAR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN EMERGE OFF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE
CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND TODAY, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER AND NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR OSCAR CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT1.SHTML
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA OF
CUBA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 14
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SIERRA MAESTRA. THIS RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES. PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THERE HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN IN SPOTS IN THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT1.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF EASTERN CUBA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST, LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH/DELGADO
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