546
WTNT41 KNHC 211445
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF OSCAR, ALTHOUGH NOT VERY EASY TO LOCATE, IS STILL
MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM
GUANTANAMO BAY SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
BECOME SEVERELY DISRUPTED. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN WHILE
INTERACTING WITH THE VERY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, AND THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 KT, ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 300/3 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM MAY RE-FORM NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
CUBA LATER TODAY. IN ANY EVENT, OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW THE
CIRCULATION OF OSCAR BECOMING ABSORBED BY A LARGER, DEVELOPING
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA BY DAY 3.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE OSCAR CONTINUES
TO INTERACT WITH THE LAND MASS OF EASTERN CUBA TODAY, AND OSCAR
COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE CIRCULATION MOVES
OVER WATER. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL BE CONTENDING WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THEREFORE
ONLY SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE OSCAR
BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH OSCAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA. PRELIMINARY REPORTS IN THE
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO IN EASTERN CUBA ALREADY INDICATE MORE THAN
10 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THROUGH MIDWEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SIERRA
MAESTRA. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/1500Z 20.3N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 22/0000Z 21.0N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 22/1200Z 22.2N 74.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 23.7N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 25.6N 71.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 28.3N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/1200Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA
FORECASTER PASCH/DELGADO
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