994
WTNT31 KNHC 211753
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
200 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
..HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 75.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS, HOLGUIN, AND
GUANTANAMO TO PUNTA MAISI
* SOUTH COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OSCAR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. OSCAR IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
LAND TODAY, FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING AFTER THE CENTER
MOVES BACK OVER WATER AND NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER. AN ASOS WEATHER STATION IN GUANTANAMO BAY, CUBA
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH (72 KM/H).
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR OSCAR CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT1.SHTML
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA OF
CUBA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 14
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SIERRA MAESTRA. THIS RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES. PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THERE HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN IN SPOTS IN THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT1.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF EASTERN CUBA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST, LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page