878
WTNT31 KNHC 212039
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
500 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
..CENTER OF OSCAR NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 76.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS, HOLGUIN, AND
GUANTANAMO TO PUNTA MAISI
* SOUTH COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OSCAR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. OSCAR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF CUBA BY THIS EVENING AND MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR OSCAR CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT1.SHTML
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
IN EASTERN CUBA THROUGH THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 14
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SIERRA MAESTRA. THIS RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES. PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THERE HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN IN SPOTS IN THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OSCAR,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT1.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF EASTERN CUBA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. NEAR THE COAST, LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page