236
WTNT41 KNHC 212042
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
500 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION OF OSCAR IS RATHER BROAD, VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NEARING THE NORTHERN COAST
OF EASTERN CUBA. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS
DIMINISHED DURING THE DAY, AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO A DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT, PERHAPS GENEROUSLY, AT 35 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. SURFACE SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE, AND NO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WIND RADII ARE SHOWN TO THE NORTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
OSCAR BEEN TURNING FAIRLY SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT WHILE THE SYSTEM
EXECUTES A HAIRPIN TURN OVER EASTERN CUBA. THE CURRENT MOTION
ESTIMATE IS AROUND 330/6 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED WHILE IT MOVES ON THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED, THE OVERALL OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS A BLEND OF
THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS PREDICTIONS.
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER WATER SOON, SO SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER,
OSCAR WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SHOULD IMPART SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. ALSO, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.
THUS, ONLY SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING SEEMS POSSIBLE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.
IN 2 TO 3 DAYS, THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED BY
A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH OSCAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA. OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, A
RAINFALL TOTAL OF NEARLY 15 INCHES WAS REPORTED AT PUNTA DE MAISI
ON THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THROUGH MIDWEEK, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SIERRA
MAESTRA. IN ADDITION, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 21.0N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 22/0600Z 21.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 22/1800Z 23.3N 74.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 25.0N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 27.4N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 31.5N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/1800Z...ABSORBED BY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA
FORECASTER PASCH/DELGADO
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