701
WTNT31 KNHC 212345
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
800 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 75.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS, HOLGUIN, AND
GUANTANAMO TO PUNTA MAISI
* SOUTH COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST. OSCAR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A FASTER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR OSCAR CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT1.SHTML
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, MAINLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN EASTERN CUBA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 14
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SIERRA MAESTRA. THIS RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ALONG WITH MUDSLIDES. PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THERE HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN IN SPOTS IN THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OSCAR,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT1.SHTML?RAINQPF
STORM SURGE: ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF EASTERN CUBA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NEAR THE
COAST, LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
FORECASTER REINHART
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