600
WTNT31 KNHC 220240
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2024
...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OSCAR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 75.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
FOR CUBA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. OSCAR IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A FASTER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF OSCAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND
OSCAR COULD DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR OSCAR CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT41 KNHC
AND ON THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV/TEXT/MIATCDAT1.SHTML
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.
RAINFALL: THROUGH TUESDAY, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED, LEADING TO STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES,
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES, ARE EXPECTED. THIS RAINFALL
COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OSCAR,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_AT1.SHTML?RAINQPF
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT.
FORECASTER REINHART
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page