342
WTPZ42 KNHC 220242
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
900 PM CST MON OCT 21 2024
KRISTY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ARE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION WITH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALSO PRESENT IN THIS REGION.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 35 TO 53 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS RAISED TO 40 KT, CLOSEST
TO THE UW-CIMSS DMINT OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS HEADING WESTWARD AT 270/14 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE KRISTY MOVES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE
STORM WILL REACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE FRAGMENTED CONVECTION SEEN ON SATELLITE INFRARED IMAGERY SEEMS
TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS A DRY AIR INTRUSION POSSIBLY SLOWING
KRISTY'S PRESENT ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM SHIPS-RII IS
SHOWING A HIGH CHANCE (72 PERCENT) OF 25 KT OF STRENGTHENING IN 24
H. THEREFORE, THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST NOW EXPLICITLY
FORECASTS THIS INCREASE, MAKING KRISTY A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY AND
NUDGING UP THE PEAK TO 100 KT IN 60 H. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING
TREND. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE, BETWEEN THE HCCA AND THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0300Z 13.7N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 13.9N 105.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 14.2N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 14.2N 111.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 14.2N 115.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 14.1N 118.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 14.4N 121.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 16.4N 126.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 19.7N 131.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
FORECASTER BUCCI
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