351
WTNT41 KNHC 221455
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING OSCAR HAS HAD
DIFFICULTY LOCATING A CENTER THIS MORNING. DATA FROM THE PLANE AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
ELONGATED. ALSO, THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH, BUT WE WILL WAIT FOR AN UPCOMING SCATTEROMETER PASS THAT
WILL PROVIDE A WIDER SWATH OF WIND DATA BEFORE DOWNGRADING IT.
THUS, FOR THE MOMENT, THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT.
NONETHELESS, SINCE ALL OF THE STRONGER WINDS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF
THE CENTER, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS
BEING DISCONTINUED.
GIVEN THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CENTER, THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN
UNCERTAIN 040/10 KT. OSCAR SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION IN 24-36 HOURS. WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE
BAROCLINIC CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR NEAR OR NORTH OF OSCAR. THE
RESULTING EXTRATROPICAL SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO ABSORB OR MERGE
WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS.
THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, CONSISTING OF STRONG SHEAR AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR, IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, SO NO STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED. INDEED, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OSCAR COULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH THE NEW EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WITH
RAINFALL EASING ACROSS CUBA, FLOODING FROM RAINFALL WHICH HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED COULD REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/1500Z 22.9N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 24.7N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 27.8N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 24/0000Z 31.5N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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