410
WTPZ42 KNHC 222053
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
200 PM MST TUE OCT 22 2024
RECENT SATELLITE AND ASCAT DATA SHOW KRISTY HAS STRENGTHENED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP AROUND A POTENTIAL INNER
CORE, WITH HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT,
REVEALING A DEVELOPING EYE. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1618Z SHOWED A
ROBUST WIND FIELD, WITH A MAX WIND RETRIEVAL OF 53 KT. THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO CONCUR WITH THESE
OBSERVATIONS, WITH T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB AT
18 UTC. GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT ON SATELLITE SINCE THAT TIME, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW SET AT THE UPPER-END OF THESE ESTIMATES AT
65 KT, MAKING KRISTY A HURRICANE.
KRISTY CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
SKIRTS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. CURRENT MOTION IS SET AT 275/16 KT AND THIS WESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN
TO TRACK POLEWARD STARTING THIS WEEKEND AROUND 60-72 HOURS AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE RIDGE. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY
THAT TIME GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AS TO THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AS SUCH, THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
THEREAFTER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE BULLISH, WITH RAPID
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS KRISTY
ENCOUNTERS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS- AND
ECMWF-SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE LATTER AID ALSO INDICATES A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A 40 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN 24 HOURS, NEARLY TEN
TIMES THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST WILL
EXPLICITLY SHOW KRISTY INTENSIFYING UP TO 100 KT MAJOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY IN 24 H, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KT AT 60 H. AFTER
60-72 H, KRISTY WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. KRISTY IS
LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 120 H AS IT LOSES CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 14.7N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 14.6N 111.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 18.7N 130.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER TORRES-VAZQUEZ/PAPIN
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