688
WTPZ42 KNHC 230235
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
800 PM MST TUE OCT 22 2024
KRISTY CONTINUES TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. 1-MINUTE GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONTINUOUS DEEP BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER, A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION, AND SYMMETRIC UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. AN
AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS FROM 1919 UTC SHOWED A VERTICALLY ALIGNED LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL EYE. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED THIS CYCLE AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT, REPRESENTING A BLEND OF
THE TAFB (T4.0/65 KT) AND SAB (T4.5/77 KT) CLASSIFICATIONS.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS STEERING THE HURRICANE TO THE
WEST AT ABOUT 17 KT. THIS WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL KRISTY REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
BY FRIDAY, MODELS ANTICIPATE THE HURRICANE TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN ON SATURDAY.
THE MORE SHALLOW VORTEX IS EXPECT TO BEND BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THERE ARE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING AS WELL.
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALL PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS TO SUPPORT STEADY TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING ABOVE
AVERAGE CHANCES OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 H AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE QUICKLY BY FRIDAY AS KRISTY APPROACHES
COOLER WATERS. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEYOND 72 H
AND KRISTY SHOULD LOSE ITS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION BY 120 H AND
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST LIES
AT THE TOP OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THE SHORT-TERM AND CLOSER TO
CENTER DURING THE MIDDLE TO LONG-RANGE TIME PERIODS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 14.7N 110.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 14.5N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.3N 116.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 15.2N 125.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 16.4N 127.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 19.2N 131.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 20.6N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER BUCCI
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