186
WTPZ42 KNHC 231442
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
800 AM MST WED OCT 23 2024
THE IMPRESSIVE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF KRISTY HAS CONTINUED THIS
MORNING. THE GRADUALLY WARMING EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS SURROUNDED BY
A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION, WITH INFRARED CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS
-75 TO -80 DEG C. GOES-WEST DERIVED MOTION WINDS INDICATE GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE
A CONSENSUS T5.5/102-KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 12 UTC. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST KRISTY HAS KEPT STRENGTHENING SINCE THAT TIME, AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT, FOLLOWING THE RISING
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD (265/17 KT) WHILE BEING
STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS QUICK
WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 H. THEN, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
WESTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN BY DAY 5, AS IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT KRISTY
WILL BECOME HIGHLY SHEARED AND DECOUPLED, WITH THE VERTICALLY
SHALLOW VORTEX STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST.
KRISTY IS A RELATIVELY SMALL HURRICANE THAT REMAINS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM
SSTS. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHIPS OUTPUT SHOWS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A 20-KT INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12 H, AND THE SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST CONTINUED NEAR-TERM STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE
UPDATED NHC FORECAST REFLECTS THESE SIGNALS AND LIES ABOVE THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM, SHOWING KRISTY PEAKING AS A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO IMPART INCREASED SHEAR ON THE HURRICANE, WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE 5-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH SHIPS-DIAGNOSED SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50 KT BY THE
WEEKEND, KRISTY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY 120 H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 14.3N 113.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.2N 116.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.1N 119.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 14.3N 122.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 15.1N 125.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 16.5N 127.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 129.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.5N 132.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 21.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER REINHART
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