177
WTPZ42 KNHC 240231
TCDEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
800 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2024
AFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, KRISTY'S IMPRESSIVE
STRENGTHENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE PAUSED. THE VERY POWERFUL MAJOR
HURRICANE REMAINS QUITE COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC WITH A RING OF INTENSE
DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING ITS TINY EYE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 135 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES THAT RANGE BETWEEN 125 AND 140 KT. HOWEVER, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT KRISTY IS A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED
OF COMPACT HURRICANES ARE SOMETIMES UNDERESTIMATED. THERE ARE ALSO
SIGNS THAT KRISTY COULD BE BEGINNING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE,
WHICH IS COMMON IN STRONG HURRICANES IN NEAR IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS.
KRISTY CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY WESTWARD AT 17 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE HURRICANE MOVES ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A SHARPER TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN THE HURRICANE MOVES IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED TO
THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST MODELS.
THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN GENERALLY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY, SO THE INTENSITY
CHANGES WILL BE LARGELY GOVERNED BY INTERNAL DYNAMICS DURING THAT
TIME. HOWEVER, STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY EARLY
FRIDAY WHEN KRISTY MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER SHEAR, COOLER WATERS, AND NOTABLY DRIER AIR. THE MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST HCCA GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 14.2N 117.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 14.2N 119.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 14.6N 122.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 15.5N 124.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 16.9N 127.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 18.7N 129.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 20.5N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 21.7N 132.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0000Z 20.5N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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